The Self-Correcting Nature of Science....but not if the scientists had their way.Despite the paen of atheists to the marvels of science - its single-minded pursuit of the truth, the fact that it is based on facts, its ability to self-correct - it seems that
scientists deliberately used bad data to develope the infamous "hockey stick" or "we are all going to die" model of climate warming and would have gotten away with it if it was not for a persistent blogger who called bullshit on the whole thing.The scandal has serious implications for public trust in science. The IPCC's mission is to reflect the science, not create it.
As the panel states, its duty is "assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. It does not carry out new research nor does it monitor climate-related data." But as lead author, Briffa was a key contributor in shaping (no pun intended) the assessment. A small group was able to rewrite history.
When the IPCC was alerted to peer-reviewed research that refuted the idea, it declined to include it. This leads to the more general, and more serious issue: what happens when peer-review fails - as it did here?
The scandal has only come to light because of the dogged persistence of a Canadian mathematician who attempted to reproduce the results. Steve McIntyre has written dozens of letters requesting the data and methodology, and over 7,000 blog posts. Yet Yamal has remained elusive for almost a decade.
The IPCC is the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has announced Global Warming as a fact.
The backstory is this:
Picking a temperature signal out of all this noise is problematic, and a dendrochronology can differ significantly from instrumented data. In dendro jargon, this disparity is called "divergence". The process of creating a raw data set also involves a selective use of samples - a choice open to a scientist's biases.
Yet none of this has stopped paleoclimataologists from making bold claims using tree ring data.
In particular, since 2000, a large number of peer-reviewed climate papers have incorporated data from trees at the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia. This dataset gained favour, curiously superseding a newer and larger data set from nearby. The older Yamal trees indicated pronounced and dramatic uptick in temperatures.
How could this be? Scientists have ensured much of the measurement data used in the reconstructions remains a secret - failing to fulfill procedures to archive the raw data. Without the raw data, other scientists could not reproduce the results. The most prestigious peer reviewed journals, including Nature and Science, were reluctant to demand the data from contributors. Until now, that is.
At the insistence of editors of the Royal Society's Philosophical Transactions B the data has leaked into the open - and Yamal's mystery is no more.
From this we know that the Yamal data set uses just 12 trees from a larger set to produce its dramatic recent trend. Yet many more were cored, and a larger data set (of 34) from the vicinity shows no dramatic recent warming, and warmer temperatures in the middle ages.
In all there are 252 cores in the CRU Yamal data set, of which ten were alive 1990. All 12 cores selected show strong growth since the mid-19th century. The implication is clear: the dozen were cherry-picked.
Controversy has been raging since 1995, when an explosive paper by Keith Briffa at the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia asserted that that the medieval warm period was actually really cold, and recent warming is unusually warm. Both archaeology and the historical accounts, Briffa was declaring, were bunk. Briffa relied on just three cores from Siberia to demonstrate this.
Excuse me, what??? Three cores? Twelve cores??? Twelve cherry-picked cores???
From Siberia???? Only freaking Siberia??? I thought the answer to the Medieval Warm Period - when Vikings settled in Greenland - was that that was a localized phenomenon.
We're basing global economic decisions on three or twelve trees???
Hokey hockey sticks
Mann too used dendrochronology to chill temperatures, and rebuffed attempts to publish his measurement data. Initially he said he had forgotten where he put it, then declined to disclosed it. (Some of Mann's data was eventually discovered, by accident, on his ftp server in a directory entitled 'BACKTO_1400-CENSORED'.)
Tree data was secondary in importance to Mann's statistical technique, which would produce a dramatic modern upturn in temperatures - which became nicknamed the "Hockey Stick" - even using red noise.
Similarly, all the papers that used the Yamal data have the same point to make. All suggest recent dramatic warming. Having scored a global hit with a combination of flawed statistics and dubious dendroclimatology, the acts repeated the formula.
Unfortunately:
All the papers come from a small but closely knit of scientists who mutually support each other's work. All use Yamal data. And without the Yamal data, the temperature record shows a very different shape.
No Yamal trees, no Hockey Stick.
Amazing. I guess we are all supposed to forget how conclusive the "Hockey Stick" was supposed to be.
I like (a) how the GW scientist "lost" his data and (b)how the "right" data was cherry-picked and (c) all those really smart scientists never asked to check the data. As a non-scientist bystander, I have to wonder what motivates this level of "cheating."
Ideology much? The quest to do the "right science" and get the "right answers" to win the big prizes?
Someone ought to look into that issue.
The Register article
links to this more extensive description of the scandal [at BishopHill.The Texas Scribbler offers this speculation about the motivation of the researcher who cooked the books:
MORE from McIntyre's co-researcher Ross McKitrick: "Whatever is going on here, it is not science." I wonder if it all began as Briffa's attempt to save his job for some reason. You know, make a big discovery, prove his worth? And then Al Gore and his cronies took over. Pols are always looking for a big controversy to justify their existence. Stir in the Dictators Club's IPCC, and the earth is doomed.
Twelve measly trees indeed.
On the number of trees, I'm reminded of one the most devastating cross-examinations I've ever seen, which, unfortunately, was on my expert witness on agricultural economics. I'd put the expert on in order to show the lost production of a particular kind of fruit tree. The expert was extremely well-regarded in the industry and had degrees, experience and qualifications.
During the cross-examination, the other attorney zeroed in on the comparative study that the expert had used to show productivity, which consisted of one row of trees - maybe 15 or 20 trees - in an area that the expert could not say was comparable to where my client's trees were located and were subject to localized micro-influences that might or might not have been similar to what my client's trees were subjected to.
The jury picked up on the small sample size and the speculative connection between the study and my client's orchard and did not award my client future lost profits.
The Fresno jury was apparently more intelligent than the IPCC and the scientific community.
The most influential tree in the world update:It turns out that
the hockey stick study was skewed by a single tree. Of the ten trees cherry picked from the larger sample, one was off the mean by six standard deviations, and, thus, produced the hockey stick, which made for global policy, cap and trade nonsense and the rest.
What should not be overlooked is the stone-walling done by the researcher Keith Briffa over the underlying data. Although most journals require the release of information, none enforced their rules, until the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Nonetheless, it took substantial time afterwards for Keith Briffa to put it up on his website, prompting this criticism:
3. Why the hell did you wait 10 years to release the data? You did yourself no favors by deferring reasonable requests to archive data to enable replication. It was only when you became backed into a corner by The Royal Society that you made the data available. Your delays and roadblocks (such as providing an antique data format of the punched card era), plus refusing to provide metadata says more about your integrity than the data itself. Your actions make it appear that you did not want to release the data at all. Your actions are not consistent with the actions of the vast majority of scientists worldwide when asked for data for replication purposes. Making data available on paper publication for replication is the basis of proper science, which is why The Royal Society called you to task.