Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Don't get cocky!

Romney over Obama - 50 to 46 - in leftist Daily Kos/SEIU poll:

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE ±2.5% (10/4-7 results)

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)
At a time when other polls are moving back in the president's direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:

Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

And this Las Vegas oddsmaker makes some interesting points in favor of a Romney landslide:

There are several specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on election day:

The news media is ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards President Obama. In the West Virginia Democrat primary, a felon got 40% of the vote versus Obama. In deep blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even, or leading in recent polls. In pro-union Wisconsin, Walker won by a country mile. But worst of all for Mr. Obama, several recent polls show Romney competitive in Illinois -- Obama’s home state. Romney is actually winning by a landslide in the suburbs of Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the country’s biggest Democratic stronghold, Romney leads by double digits among independents (43-31) and white voters (53-40). These are very bad signs for Obama.

In 2008 Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the majority of governorships. Today Republicans control the majority of Governorships. Presidential elections are always steered in each state by the governor -- the most powerful force in state politics.

After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that lean Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah. Deep blue Democrat states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.

That brings up an interesting point. Why is everyone running away from these ultra liberal, high tax states in the first place? Isn’t that alone proof of the failure of Democrat ideas?

Next, follow the money trail. Yes, Obama is raising plenty of money, although there is now a major question about whether it's coming from illegal foreign contributors. But forget all that. What matters is that in 2008 Obama overwhelmed McCain by out-spending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t happen in 2012. Romney is even, or can out-spend Obama, in the last 2 weeks of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.

Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended Christians again and again. Last election 20 million evangelical Christians did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most anti-Christian President in US history. How motivated are Christians? Did you see the long lines around the country to support Chick-fil-A this summer? You’ll see those same lines on election day.

Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many states -- particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing like 2008.

Which brings up another important question. What kind of political party relies on felons and people illegally in the country to win elections?

The “Enthusiasm Factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused, intense, motivated, and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in record numbers in 2008. Today they are demoralized. A big edge goes to Romney on Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle class voters and independents turn out in record numbers for Romney.

I know several people who voted for Obama in 2008, but never again. Does anyone know a McCain voter who will vote for Obama in 2012? There are none.

Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the challenger. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on election day -- just like Reagan did versus Jimmy Carter in 1980. Romney’s fantastic debate performance gave them confidence to choose the challenger.

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