The nice thing about having a Democrat in the White House is that there is no bad news.

Slow or no growth predicted for heart of San Joaquin Valley:

For a fourth straight month, business conditions in the four counties making up the heart of the San Joaquin Valley continue to slide, according to the newest survey by Fresno State’s Craig School of Business.

Its San Joaquin Valley “Business Conditions Index” declined in September, sinking below growth-neutral 50.0 for the first time since January, signaling slow to no growth in the months ahead.

The index is a leading economic indicator from a survey of individuals making company purchasing decisions for firms in Fresno, Madera, Kings and Tulare counties. The index is produced using the same methodology as that of the national Institute for Supply Management.

Overall, the index produced by Craig School research associate Ernie Goss dipped to 49.5 from 50.6 in August. An index greater than 50 indicates an expansionary economy over the course of the next three to six months.

“Much like the rest of the nation, the area is growing at a slow pace,” says Mr. Goss. “Our survey results point to slow to no growth for the final quarter of 2012. The national ISM index has now moved below growth neutral for four months in a row.”

The hiring gauge improved slightly in September: 50.4 from August’s 48.6. “The area has been adding jobs but at a very slow pace,” says Mr. Goss. “Our surveys over the past several months point to slow to no job growth for the final quarter of 2012. Expansions for non-durable goods producers will be offset by pullbacks for durable goods manufacturers.”

The prices-paid index, which tracks the cost of raw materials and supplies, slipped to a still inflationary 62.1 from 62.3 in August.

“At the wholesale level, we are tracking price growth at an expanding pace. Over the next six months, survey participants expect the costs of inputs that they purchase to rise by 2.9 percent,” he says.

“This annualized rate of 5.8 percent is much too high for the Federal Reserve to ignore any Fed action on inflation. With food prices pushed higher by the drought, further cheapening of the dollar by the Fed via QE3 (bond buying) would only serve to drive food and energy prices even higher with consumer prices rising well above the Fed’s comfort zone,” adds Mr. Goss.

Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, captured by the business confidence index, fell to a weak 36.1 from 38.8 in August. “Survey participants, much like the entire business sector, remain very pessimistic regarding future economic conditions even with the improving housing market,” he says. “The drought, the fiscal cliff, the elections and European economic turmoil are all weighing on economic confidence.”

The drought is caused by our failure to invest in infrastructue.

The only thing keeping inflation down is the stagnant economy.

We are so boned.

America's Gross Domestic Product growth is collapsing under President Hope and Change Downgrade.

According to James Pethoukis:

GDP collapse puts U.S. economy into recession red zone

U.S. economic growth is dangerously slow. I’ve frequently written about research from the Fed which finds that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 48% of the time. And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2%, recession follows within a year 70% of the time.

Citigroup has also taken a shot at determining the stall speed: “Specifically, when U.S. growth has cut below 1½ percent on a rolling four-quarter basis, it has tended to fall by nearly 3 percentage points over the following four quarters, and the economy has typically entered recession.

Bottom line: Growth the past two quarters has averaged about 1.6%. Not only does this mean the economy is growing more slowly than last year’s 1.8%, it is also slow enough to signal about a 50% chance of a recession within a year. And the third quarter also looks weak.

The anemic, three-year-old U.S. recovery is already running out of steam. And if it does, it may be several more years before we see unemployment below 8%.

And a chart:

Not to worry, Obama has a plan - blame Bush during the next four years.