The Wedge Strategy may be backfiring.

I've been recording the ramping up of activity on the Left that seems to directed to counseling Catholics to engage in "civil disobedience" aginst their church. This seems to be more the result of ideology than sensible politics. Catholics are an important "swing" vote in critical swing states.

Now it appears that the there is empirical evidence that the ideologically driven campaign is backfiring.

President Obama has seen his standing among Catholic voters, a crucial segment of the electorate, slip in recent weeks, and a looming confrontation with Catholic activists could make it worse.

Democrats want voters this year to focus on what they have branded a war on women, but the flip side of the debate — the so-called war on religion — is not going away anytime soon.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops called for two weeks of public protest in June and July against what it sees as growing government encroachment on religious freedom.

Moreover, there could be Catholic protests this summer, which will obviously be ignored by the press, but in this day of internet communications people - voters - Catholic voters - will know about the protest.

Republican strategists say the rallies and protests could become powerfully symbolic in the presidential election.

“These would be devastating images for the Obama administration,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist. “You have a very important religious demographic coming out in protest of Obama’s policies and being arrested for their expression. These images would be politically damaging for the president’s campaign.”

And the conference could go beyond protests — it has also discussed working with evangelical Christian groups on a broader public relations campaign that could include television and radio ads.

Steven Wagner, the president of QEV Analytics, a polling firm that recently conducted a survey for The Catholic Association, said religion could emerge as a sleeper issue in the election: “Everyone says this election is about the economy. I can see the issue of religious liberty being what decides the race. If Obama continues to lose Catholics by the margin the Pew poll suggests, that means he could lose the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Iowa.”

Losses in those states could cost Obama the White House, and the states are likely aware of that fact. Wagner noted the administration will likely try to be careful and avoid provoking Catholic activists before the election.

Obama has lost support among Catholic voters since the beginning of his term. A March 21 poll by the Pew Research Center found a “noticeable shift in opinions” among white Catholics in their views of the administration. Thirty-one percent of white Catholics now describe it as unfriendly to religion, compared to 17 percent in August of 2009.

The administration’s mandate requiring faith-based organizations to cover the healthcare costs of contraception has been the biggest cause of Catholics’ concern. The conference of bishops was not mollified by Obama’s effort to accommodate their concerns or his decision to maintain restrictions on Plan B, the morning-after pill.

In late January, priests in scores of churches across the country read letters from the pulpit urging congregants to contact members of Congress to oppose the new rule.