On the political math of trading rich gay votes for poor Black/Hispanic/Catholic/Blue-collar votes....

...according to James Taranto:

So Obama makes up for ceding the squares and the crackers by picking up the hipsters and the eggheads. The average age of a Democratic voter drops, while the average IQ rises. Like Spinal Tap, the president's appeal is becoming more selective.

But there are two problems with this analysis. First, squares tend to be much more reliable about actually going to the polls than hipsters do, and there aren't enough eggheads who aren't already with the Democrats to make up for the lost crackers.

Here's the math for the insight:

Second, Brownstein seems to be taking only white voters into account. The Democratic coalition depends on overwhelming support from blacks and strong support from Hispanics. Blacks and Hispanics alike are less apt than whites to support same-sex marriage. When California passed Proposition 8 in 2008, exit polls showed it had the support of 70% of blacks, 53% of Latinos and only 49% of whites. (Brownstein concedes this point in a companion piece, though his emphasis again is on the inverse correlation between age and support for same-sex marriage, which holds for minorities as well as whites.)

Obama's support for same-sex marriage is almost certain to cut into his support among Hispanics and even blacks, leading some to vote for Romney and others to stay home. We'll be very surprised if Obama fails to win a majority of Hispanics and the vast majority of blacks, but seemingly small changes can add up.

Example: Exit polls show that in 2004, blacks constituted 11% of the presidential electorate. In 2008 that figure rose to 13%. Blacks supported John Kerry over George W. Bush by 88% to 11% and Obama over John McCain by 95% to 4%.

Mickey Kaus seems to realize that Obama's flip isn't likely to help him this November. He argues fancifully that the president has 2016 in mind. If Obama isn't re-elected, Kaus speculates, "I think he's going to run again, Grover Cleveland style." By 2016, Kaus expects public opinion "to have shifted further in favor of this social innovation," so that what is a risky position now will be helpful then.

On that last point, seriously?????

If that's the case, then Obama is at the "Hitler in the bunker giving orders to armies that don't exist" stage of desperation.