Things must be dire if a WaPo columnist is questioning the political genius of the Noble Prize Winning, Sea-lowering, Smartest Guy Ever.

It looks like Obama's "battle space preparation" strategy of dividing the Catholic base from the Catholic bishops is backfiring:

But this does not mean a subset of Catholicism can’t be electorally important. White, non-Hispanic Catholic voters could matter greatly in some tight state contests. And Obama has done his best to alienate them.

The main offense has been the Health and Human Services Department’s mandate for contraception, sterilization and abortion-inducing drugs under Obamacare — a regulation that turns Catholic hospitals, universities and charities into instruments of a federal policy they find offensive. Between early March and mid-April — soon after the mandate battle was joined — the Pew Research Center found that Obama’s support among all Catholics fell from 53 percent to 45 percent. Among white Catholics, it dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent. These numbers have remained depressed. Obama won 54 percent of Catholic voters in 2008. A recent Gallup survey found Obama’s Catholic support at 46 percent.

Correlation is not causation. But, in this case, it doesn’t seem mere coincidence. John White, a political science professor at the Catholic University of America, finds Obama’s decline among Catholics “in large part due to the recent debate over health care and contraception.” Many Catholics have issues with their own institutions. It does not mean they want those institutions targeted by government. They are happy to criticize their own bishops — but not to hear the views of their bishops insulted by politicians.

And HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is a continuing insult to the beliefs of traditional Catholics. Testifying at a recent House hearing, Sebelius admitted that she had consulted no constitutional precedents and asked for no legal advice from the Justice Department while making her decision on the contraceptive mandate. “Congressman,” she explained, “I’m not a lawyer and I don’t pretend to understand the nuances of the constitutional balancing tests.” The only thing worse than indifference to religious liberty is casual, ignorant indifference to religious liberty.

I’ve previously argued that the Obama administration, motivated by instinctual liberalism, stumbled into this conflict with Catholic leaders. It is possible, however, Obama is making the political calculation that appealing to younger, non-religious voters is worth the alienation of traditional Catholics. Yet even if this strategy makes sense nationally, it might not be wise in, say, Pennsylvania or Ohio, where the votes of white Catholics could matter greatly.

The Catholic bishops of Pennsylvania recently sponsored a day of prayer and fasting in response to what they called the “unprecedented and gross infringement” of religious liberty by the Obama administration. The Catholic Conference of Ohio endorsed a state legislative resolution urging Obama to rescind the HHS mandate.

Is it really part of Obama’s battleground-state strategy to disassemble Franklin Roosevelt’s Democratic coalition in the middle of a tight reelection campaign? Did he think traditional Catholics would depart quietly?