Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Based on the way the issue is constantly depicted in the cultural media, it is understandable that so many Americans believe this wrong factoid...

...on the other hand, it is weird how this false belief is never one that atheists and liberals trot out to prove that Americans are scientifically illiterate.

According to Gallup, most Americans believe that Homosexuals make up 25% of the population.

Just your best guess, what percent of Americans today would you say are gay or lesbian? 2002 and 2011 Trend

The truth is that something under 2% of the population is male homosexual, with female homosexuals amounting to .2% of the population (despite efforts to claim that the number is more like 10% of the population, which has never been verified.)  Here is a recent study on the subject

Key findings from the research brief are as follows:


 An estimated 3.5% of adults in the United States identify as lesbian, gay, or bisexual and an estimated 0.3% of adults are transgender.

 This implies that there are approximately 9 million LGBT Americans, a figure roughly equivalent to the population of New Jersey.

 Among adults who identify as LGB, bisexuals comprise a slight majority (1.8% compared to 1.7% who identify as lesbian or gay).

 Women are substantially more likely than men to identify as bisexual. Bisexuals comprise more than half of the lesbian and bisexual population among women in eight of the nine surveys considered in the brief. Conversely, gay men comprise substantially more than half of gay and bisexual men in seven of the nine surveys.

 Estimates of those who report any lifetime same-sex sexual behavior and any same-sex sexual attraction are substantially higher than estimates of those who identify as LGB. An estimated 19 million Americans (8.2%) report that they have engaged in same-sex sexual behavior and nearly 25.6 million Americans (11%) acknowledge at least some same-sex sexual attraction.

 Understanding the size of the LGBT population is a critical first step to informing a host of public policy and research topics. The surveys highlighted in this report demonstrate the viability of sexual orientation and gender identity questions on large national population-based surveys. Adding these questions to more national, state, and local data sources is critical to developing research that enables a better understanding of the understudied LGBT community.
So, in order to get the percentage over 2%, bixexuals have to be included, which is weird because so much of the apologetic in favor of homosexual rights is that GLBT individuals can't choose, and it seems that bisexuals can choose and are choosing.

The inference of the Gallup polls contradiction of reality is interesting.  It seems that a sizeable percentage of the population are over-estimating the population of homosexuals.  It would seem that if one believed that there really was 25% of the population that was homosexual, then that would affect how we viewed the "normality" of homosexuality and are views on social policy relative to the legalization of homosexual marriage.  Quite simply, it would seem that if so many people were denied access to marriage, something has got to change.

This may seem counter-intuitive because it would seem that the smaller the population, the less likely changes in policy would have a significant effect on marriage as an institution.  On the other hand, if it is such a small number it doesn't seem like such a great denial of rights in the aggregate, although on an individual basis the effect is the same if the population is 1% or 25%.

Perhaps, it is just some "common sense" utilitarianism at work there.

Another point is that it isn't clear if the over-estimate comes from a collusion of forces that want to ramp up people's belief that there is a large population of homosexuals, or if it is an artifact of television shows making sure that a homosexual character is included, or if it is that so much attention is paid to homosexual issues, that most people just assume that there must be a larger population of homosexuals than actually exists in their own experience.

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