Tuesday, November 06, 2012

More Tea Leaves.

From Third Base Politics.

Earlier we talked about how early voting data indicated some positive news for Romney here in Ohio. Early/absentee voting in Democratic counties were underperforming 2008 numbers. In red counties that number was significantly up.

Another report this afternoon means even more good news.

Actual reported early voting data requires that early voting will represent no more than 32% of total vote in Ohio, while virtually every poll was weighted for early voting to occupy ~35-40% of total votes cast.

Now recall Obama did well in Ohio-specific polls among early voters, but lost to Romney by a significant margin among election day voters.

So what happens when early voters take up a smaller portion of the electorate?

That's right, election day voters take on a higher importance.

And that means Romney's advantage increases.

3 to 8% is a good sign?

Better than nothing, I guess.

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