Earlier we talked about how early voting data indicated some positive news for Romney here in Ohio. Early/absentee voting in Democratic counties were underperforming 2008 numbers. In red counties that number was significantly up. Another report this afternoon means even more good news.3 to 8% is a good sign? Better than nothing, I guess.Actual reported early voting data requires that early voting will represent no more than 32% of total vote in Ohio, while virtually every poll was weighted for early voting to occupy ~35-40% of total votes cast.Now recall Obama did well in Ohio-specific polls among early voters, but lost to Romney by a significant margin among election day voters. So what happens when early voters take up a smaller portion of the electorate? That's right, election day voters take on a higher importance. And that means Romney's advantage increases.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
More Tea Leaves. From Third Base Politics.