Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Reading the Tea Leaves.

Fog of war disclaimer.

From Third Base Politics - In Ohio, Republican absentee ballots are up, Democrat absentee ballots are down.

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has a comprehensive list of absentee/early voting results by county that indicate very good news for Ohio Republicans.

You can read it for yourself by clicking here.

But here's the down and dirty.

Wasserman looked at absentee/early data by county from 2004 and 2008, and compared it to what has been officially reported by the Secretary of State.

The results?

In counties that voted Kerry in '04 and Obama in '08, total votes are down 4.1%. Total votes are down 40,395.

In counties that voted Bush in '04 and McCain in '08, total votes are up 14.4%. Total votes are up 81,696.

It's important to note that these aren't all votes for Obama or Romney.

But they are a strong indication of the likely turnout problems facing Democrats in their key blue counties. And more importantly, it shows the incredible bump in enthusiasm in key red counties.

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