Wednesday, October 31, 2012

CBS Poll finds Obama has a 1% edge...

...but the news gets worse for Obama thereafter.

First, it is a poll based on a "weighted" 563 likely voters.

Second, the weighted partisan breakdown is 36% Democrat, 31% Republican and 33% Independent. Since Republicans have a 1% edge in registration and more motivation this weighting is optimistic for Obama.

What is also interesting is that the CBS internals give the lie to the idea that the polls are just "calling what they find." In order to get to those probably distorted partisan weights, it seems that CBS had to reduce the number of Republicans it actually found from 257 to 242 and increase the Democrats from 297 to 321 (in the registered column.) CBS doesn't tell us the unweighted numbers for the "likely voters" for some reason.

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