Wednesday, October 31, 2012

It is time to stop paying attention to the RCP polling average.

The RCP shows the race narrowing because it includes a Congressional Connection poll showing Obama up by 5 points.

In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

So, this poll assumes that Obama will have the same level of enthusiasm that he had in 2008, despite every other poll showing that Romney is winning among independents?

This poll is designed to do one thing: prevent the Dems from panicking.

Also, the RCP cited the Battleground Poll as a +1 Obama, even though the polls itself explained that it was +5 Romney based on likely voters.

Update: This PJ Tatler pieces demonstrates that the Congressional Connection poll actually weights the "likely voter" responses to favor the Democrats.

So, basically, last month when the polls favored Obama, we were told that partisan identification was not something that pollsters weighted, that they were just telling us the information they were being provided. Now, this is the second poll where the pollster has clearly upped Democrats (from 35.6% to 37%) and lowered the Republicans (from 31% to 29%)

This is "polling as propaganda."

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